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Cross-border capital flows have shaped the world
Read Time: 18 minutesThere are a few truly macro trends that, if they change, the world must change around them. The direction of cross-border capital flows is one of these. Balance of payments data rarely moves markets on release. The level of the trade balance for countries like China matter somewhat to markets, but pale…
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Central Banks: Fed, ECB, and BoJ’s divergence
Read Time: 3 minutesThree major central banks will likely go in three directions this week. Varying domestic economic developments and imperatives will push the Fed, ECB, and BoJ to sound different from one-another. Three major central banks will likely go in three different directions this week. Although global cues are one of softening demand and…
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Weak Asian currencies, but not using FX Reserves this time!
Read Time: 2 minutesMany Asian currencies have weakened this year — most notably the yuan and the yen (tho not this week). But there is one key difference between 2023 and much of 2022 — emerging Asian countries are NOT running down their reserves to support their currencies. this is perhaps easier to see in…
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Macro Mornings| 13Jun
Read Time: 3 minutesKey economic developments Equity Market Barring UK’s FTSE and China’s Shanghai Comp, most global indices ended higher on Monday. U.S. S&P 500 and Germany DAX 30 led gains to advance by 0.9% ahead of the FOMC meeting on 14th Jun-23, followed by India’s Nifty 50 (+0.2%) propelled by real estate, IT, and…
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Fed, ECB, and BOJ’s Policy Decisions Plus China’s Data Dump
Read Time: 3 minutesWe’re in for a busy week as we try to price in the Fed, ECB, and BOJ’s monetary policy decisions! Meanwhile, data releases from China could affect intraweek trends for AUD, NZD, and even JPY. And now for the closely-watched economic indicators on the economic calendar this week: U.S. inflation reports Before the Fed publishes its…
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WORLD BUSIEST CARGO PORTS
Read Time: < 1 minuteOn this map we can see the location of the busiest ports in the world. The busiest port is the port of Shanghai. Shipping 647.000.000 tons of goods every year. What we notice straight away, is the large amount of (busy) ports in east Asia. You can see how crowded the…
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Yield Curve and Recession!
Read Time: 3 minutesWhen the yield curve flattens and eventually inverts, you worry.But it’s when a recession hits, the Fed cuts rates and the curve steepens that you become s**t scared. Yield curve dynamics represent a crucial macro variable, as they inform us on today’s borrowing conditions and on the market future expectations for growth and inflation. An inverted…
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The Commodities Feed: Debt ceiling talks & a more hawkish Fed
Read Time: 4 minutesOil has managed to hold up relatively well, despite little progress in US debt ceiling talks as well as some more hawkish comments from US Fed officials Energy – oil edges higher The oil market managed to edge higher yesterday despite there still being little progress in US debt ceiling talks as…
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A world swimming in debt, can’t sustain higher yields!
Read Time: 2 minutesThis is the most important big picture macro chart, in my opinion. It shows the tight relationship between total economic debt levels (orange, RHS) and real interest rates (blue, LHS inverted): the higher public and private sector debt burdens, the lower real interest rates must be for the system to keep afloat.…
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