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FX Market in Limbo: US Data Inconsistent, Fed Speech Tonight in Focus
Read Time: 2 minutesConfusing Signals: The foreign exchange (FX) market is stuck in neutral this week as US economic data sends mixed messages. Consumer confidence dropped, but durable goods orders surprised on the upside. Business investment, however, remains stagnant despite a strong economy and stock market. Data Today: Today’s calendar is light on data, with…
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FX market on intervention watch
Read Time: 2 minutes[responsivevoice_button rate=”1.3″ pitch=”1.1″ volume=”2″ voice=”UK English Female” buttontext=”CLICK TO LISTEN THE ARTICLE”] USD Dominance & Japan’s Worries European Inflation Concerns Additional Market Observations
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Economic implication of shifting yield curves
Read Time: 3 minutesResilient demand and price data have pushed global fixed income markets to a point of capitulation. As rate cut expectations are pared back, investors need to watch for potential fault lines. There is an element of capitulation in the global fixed income markets. The narrative of 2024 being a year of sizeable…
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Inflation Data’s Impact on Rate Cut Speculations
Read Time: 2 minutesRATE CUT BETS AND INFLATION DATA In the week beginning February 26, 2024, market attention turns to inflation data, which will serve as a litmus test for rate cut expectations. The spotlight falls on crucial indicators such as the US core PCE and Eurozone flash CPIs, underscoring the significance of inflation concerns…
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What the Red Sea crisis could mean for commodity markets?
Read Time: 11 minutesAttacks by Iranian-backed Houthis from Yemen on commercial vessels passing through the Red Sea have made some shipowners reluctant to sail via the Suez Canal and Red Sea. Instead, they’re choosing the longer and more expensive route via Southern Africa. So, what does this all mean for commodity markets? Attacks on commercial shipping…
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Yield Curve Musings
Read Time: 3 minutesThe yield curve is dis-inverting rapidly. Here is how to analyze this important phenomenon. Nothing better than a deep dive into the yield curve on a Thursday! Many are familiar with the yield curve slope as the predictor of recessions: the track record is almost perfect, and there are good reasons why.…
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Global Cues for 2024
Read Time: 3 minutesINTRODUCTION:In this market analysis, we will delve into the recent developments in the global and domestic financial landscape to understand their impact on currency pairs. We will explore the key factors driving these trends, including foreign exchange reserves, Federal Reserve policies, and the outlook for various currency pairs. Let’s examine the highlights…
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A macro insight – about the interest rates!
Read Time: 2 minutesIn the macroeconomic landscape, the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has been swiftly increasing the Fed Funds rate, reaching a significant 5.25%, a level last seen in 2007. However, the circumstances are different now compared to that time. In 2007, there was less financial leverage, a younger demographic, and no lingering scars from…
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Suez canal: Another crisis in brew?
Read Time: 3 minutesGlobal Choke Points and Their Significance Around 80% of world trade relies on sea routes, making global supply chains vital to the globalized economy. These supply chains traverse various chokepoints, each with significant geopolitical and geoeconomic implications for international affairs. Suez Canal Blockade The recent grounding of the “mega-ship” Ever Given in…
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Decoding cross-border payments: From initiation to settlement
Read Time: 5 minutesAny business participating in international commerce normally needs to make payments in foreign currencies to suppliers/sellers overseas for goods and/or services sourced from other countries. There are many different methods of sending money globally. Transferring money electronically is by far the dominant method, although some paper-based cash ways to pay still exist…
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De-Dollarization? Current situation: wrt SWIFT transactions.
Read Time: < 1 minuteBased on SWIFT international payments, we are witnessing ‘de-euroization’ and not ‘dedollarization. The euro’s share in SWIFT global payments has dropped to 23% from 38% at the start of the year. Are Russia’s SPFS and China’s CIPS eating up the euro? By the way, China’s share in SWIFT payments reached an…
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Leading export by country:
Read Time: < 1 minuteArgentina: Soybeans Australia: Iron Austria: Toxins Benin: Cotton Brazil: Soybeans Bangladesh: T-shirts Canada: Petroleum China: Electronics Chile: Copper Côte d’Ivoire: Cocoa Cuba: Cigars Denmark: Medicine Guatemala: Bananas Guyana: Drilling Platforms Egypt: Petroleum Ethiopia: Coffee Finland: Paper products Fiji: Water France: Aircrafts Germany: Vehicle engines Iceland: Aluminum India: Petroleum Indonesia: Coal Israel:…
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Challenging Misconceptions About Money Printing
Read Time: 2 minutesThe common belief is that the government requires funds to support its spending, Central Banks print currency, and banks lend and expand customers’ money in a fractional reserve banking system. However, this is far from the truth. There are two separate tiers of money in our monetary system: real-economy money (which has…
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Asian FX movements!
Read Time: 3 minutesThe yen and the yuan are the two most important Asian currencies, and both are right at multiyear lows. But there is one difference from last summer/ fall — the rest of Asia hasn’t faced the same kind of pressure. This was even more apparent in the data for q2 — Asia…
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Crude Oil Forecast: Buyers Early on Thursday
Read Time: 3 minutesOil markets displayed bullish momentum once again during Thursday’s trading session, driven by a confluence of factors, including mounting inflation concerns and ongoing production challenges. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil market observed a modest rally on Thursday, edging closer to the psychologically significant $90 threshold. While a minor retracement may…
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NDFs: Non Deliverable Forwards
Read Time: 2 minutesHedging solution for non-convertible currencies What you should know about non-deliverable forwardsAn NDF is an efficient way to hedge a foreign exchange (FX)exposure against non-convertible currencies such as theArgentinian peso, Taiwanese dollar, Korean won, etc. It isconceptually similar to a forward transaction with the differencethat there is no settlement in the non-convertible…
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The Optic Cable map
Read Time: < 1 minuteThe Cable Wars undersea chessboard in one map. Trans-Atlantic financial information exchange via fiber optic cable encompasses $10 trillion per day
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HSN List Chapter Wise
Read Time: 3 minutesITC HS Code & Chapters1 LIVE ANIMALS2 MEAT & EDIBLE MEAT OFFAL3 FISH,MOLLUSES & OTHR ACQUATIC INVERTEBRATES4 DAIRY PRODUCE,BIRD`S EGGS ETC,EDBL PRODCTS OF ANML ORGN NES5 PRODUCTS OF ANIMAL ORIGIN N.E.S.6 LIVE TREES,BULBS,ROOTS,CUT FLOWERS & ORNAMENTAL FOLIAGE7 EDIBLE VEGETABLES & CERTAIN ROOTS & TUBERS8 EDIBLE FRUIT & NUTS;PEEL/CITRUS FRUIT/MELONS9 COFFEE,TEA,MATE & SPICES10…
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Fund Manager Survey by BofA
Read Time: 3 minutesThe latest Fund Manager Survey (FMS) indicates a shift in sentiment and positioning among investors. Key takeaways include: 1. Market Sentiment: The FMS data shows the least bearish sentiment towards financial markets (FMS) since February 2022. Cash holdings have dropped from 5.3% to 4.8%, marking a 21-month low. Three out of four…
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Fixed Income Musings
Read Time: 4 minutes[responsivevoice_button rate=”1.1″ pitch=”1.1″ volume=”2″ voice=”UK English Female” buttontext=”LISTEN”] MACRO AT A GLANCE US data remain consistent with a soft landing scenario. Housing starts, industrial production and retail sales all increased in July and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index returned to expansionary territory in August. Japanese inflation firms further. Annual new core CPI…
