Amazing to see Italy’s massive trade surplus. That surplus is much more impressive than pre-COVID, when it in large part reflected weak domestic demand. That’s not true now, since Italy has grown lots in the years since the pandemic. Kudos to Europe’s new export machine: Italy!
On an another point of view,
Exports have actually flattened since mid-2022 (blue line). The emergence of a net EX + is largely driven by a drastic fall in imports. This is due to the price trend in energy goods (which are 90% imported), but also to week domestic demand (real wages now lower than in 1990).
BUT, Here’s how I would look at this: aggregate up Jan – Jun every year to smooth out noise. Exports (red) are up in H1 2023 from an already very really high level in H1 2022 and imports are down from 2022 though still very high. So exports look very much part of what’s going on…
