That assumption used to be rife for EMs, and occasionally pops into DM FX talk too. Export competitiveness is more about value chains than occasional FX volatility.
for what it is worth IMF found that exchange rate moves do have the expected impact back in 2015. https://imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Global-Value-Chains-and-the-Exchange-Rate-Elasticity-of-Exports-43424… Fed’s international trade model nailed the impact of the 14-15 USD move as well.
Global value chains (GVC) are the bigger variable for export competitiveness vs FX movement. Screenshot is below. GVC meaningfully reduces export elasticity to price (FX) I don’t mean zero effect.
