China has a significant global market share of manufactured goods, with exports rising 8.5% YoY in April. This growth is mainly due to base effects and mainly to the global South (EM). China exports to the US and EU have been dragged down by lower demand there and tariffs/sanctions/industrial policy (IRA). However, China exports to Russia, Africa, and ASEAN have been up.
In 2023, China exports to ASEAN have tanked -7.9% YoY, with imports from Korea and Japan falling the most. Imports are primarily in commodity products, with copper and steel products falling, indicating weak demand for real estate building. Export details are not so good, mostly to the global South.
From an ASEAN perspective, China is exporting more but importing much less, which is not good for ASEAN. This is due to policies like US tariffs, investment curbs, and industrial policy like IRA. Decoupling is emerging, and Chinese manufacturers/exporters are taking a strategy to arbitrage by investing more in ASEAN, as the biggest trade partner for China is ASEAN. The question is whether this benefits ASEAN or reroutes exports.