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Oil cap breach fails to stop compliant shipments from Russia
Read Time: 5 minutesSome 141 of the 300 tankers tracked loading from eight major export ports in Russia had P&I insurance with one of the 12 clubs that are members of the International Group, a proxy for cap compliance. Tankers are providing evidence of compliance even as global prices for crude grades and nearly all…
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Is the Oil sanctions on Russia working?
Read Time: < 1 minuteThere’s a widespread view that the G7 cap on Russia isn’t working. So here’s two facts: (i) Ruble is weak even with the big rise in oil prices (lhs); (ii) Russia’s current account surplus is low even as Urals oil price is up (rhs). The G7 cap isn’t perfect, but it’s…
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Russian oil sold to India at 30% above Western price cap.
Read Time: 2 minutesRussia is selling oil to India at nearly $80 per barrel, some $20 above the Western price cap, traders said, as tight global oil markets help Moscow generate strong appetite for its exports. Russia’s main export grade Urals has been trading above the $60 per barrel Western price cap since mid-July amid…
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Fortress Russia is finally breaking?
Read Time: < 1 minuteThe wheels are definitely coming off “Fortress Russia.” Ruble usually has a positive correlation with global oil prices, given that – as John McCain once said “Russia is a gas station masquerading as a country” – but that’s over. The Ruble is tumbling as global oil prices rise!
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Is Russia losing the war?
Read Time: < 1 minuteThe clearest signal that Russia is losing this war? #Russia Ruble weakened beyond 100 per Dollar for 1st time in 17mth, extending a slide that threatens to stoke inflation in an economy that has been kneecapped by Western sanctions. Ruble has fallen 27% vs Dollar YTD & 23% vs Chinese Yuan,…
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Export Growth to Russia
Read Time: < 1 minuteExport growth to Russia – directly to Russia (red) and indirectly via Central Asia (blue) – for 16 countries. It’s well known Turkey (TR) and China (CN) have massive export growth via both routes. What’s shocking is that the Baltics do too. EU country Latvia (LV) stands out!
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Ruble decoupling with Oil!
Read Time: < 1 minuteRussian Ruble is falling (black), while the global Brent oil price (blue) is rising. This kind of decoupling is highly unusual and is the best piece of evidence that the G7 oil price cap is working. Putin isn’t getting a windfall from rising oil prices like he did in 2022.
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Oil Caps and Greece
Read Time: 2 minutes1. Greece falsified data to join Euro 2. It then had a big consumption boom 3. Causing huge current account deficits 4. Greece got a bailout on its debt run-up 5. Greek oligarchs now oppose a lower cap 6. They sell old oil tankers to Putin 7. The EU can stop this…
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Is a capital flight eminent for RUB?
Read Time: < 1 minuteThe Russian Ruble is falling. In recent months, main driver was the fall in oil prices, but – given the rise in political instability in Russia – there’s now inevitably also capital flight. It’s hard for ordinary Russians to take money out. But now they’ll try even harder.
