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Yen’s Government Intervention
Read Time: 2 minutesAt some point – and I certainly don’t know when – the fundamentals that will start to matter for Japan will be broader than the (large) interest rate differential and will include the absolute level of the (back to its level in the early 70s) and the balance of payments Japan’s trade…
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Yen’s Dramatic Rebound: Signs of Japanese Government Intervention Amid Market Volatility
Read Time: 3 minutesSharp Yen Rebound Suggests Government Intervention The Japanese yen made a significant recovery against the dollar on Monday, after hitting a 34-year low earlier in the day. Traders observed that the yen’s swift rebound had all the hallmarks of a government intervention. Around 1 pm Tokyo time, the yen surged from ¥159.5…
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Japanese Yen’s Q1 Woes and Potential Q2 Rebound: A Recap and Look Ahead
Read Time: 3 minutesThe Japanese Yen (JPY) endured a rough first quarter of 2024, depreciating sharply against major currencies like the US Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), and British Pound (GBP). This weakness stemmed primarily from a key difference in monetary policies: This policy divergence caused a significant gap in yield differentials. Investors seeking higher returns…
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Analysis of USD/JPY Technical Analysis with Bullish Bias
Read Time: 2 minutesThis excerpt presents a bullish technical analysis of the USD/JPY currency pair. Here’s a breakdown of the key points and some additional considerations: Main Points: Analyst’s Trading Bias: Additional Considerations: Overall, this analysis presents a bullish viewpoint on USD/JPY based on technical factors and the interest rate differential.
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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Bulls Back in Charge, Eyes on 153.03
Read Time: < 1 minuteUSD/JPY Poised for Further Gains: The USD/JPY pair has regained its bullish momentum after surpassing the temporary resistance at 151.85. This upswing suggests a potential resumption of the long-term uptrend. Key Levels to Watch: Price Targets: Bigger Picture: The correction from the 2023 high (151.87) might be over, with the uptrend…
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Japanese Yen in Turmoil: Soaring Dollar, Carry Trade Opportunity
Read Time: 2 minutesYen Plummets: The Japanese Yen is the worst-performing currency in the developed world, with the USD/JPY pair reaching its highest level in over 30 years. This comes despite the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike, the first in nearly two decades. Why the Contradiction? The rise in USD/JPY can be attributed to…
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Bank of Japan – with its new interest regime!
Read Time: 5 minutesBank of Japan Breakdown As many of you will know, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates (+0.1%) for the first time since 2007, taking rates in the country to 0-0.1% from -0.1% previously. What the BOJ is doing What it is not doing Source: BOJ Source: BOJ A bit of context…
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BOJ exits NIRP and scraps YCC
Read Time: < 1 minuteBank of Japan exited negative interest rate policy (NIRP), and scrapped its YCC policy. All new changes will be effective from 21 March 2024. The BOJ hiked its policy rate for the first time in 17 years, and switched its benchmark rate from the rate paid on excess reserves to the overnight…
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Bank of Japan: A Hike, But Not a Shift?
Read Time: 2 minutesThis post dissects the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) upcoming policy decision, focusing on whether a rate hike signifies a more hawkish stance. Key Points: Overall, we suggest a cautious approach by the BoJ. A rate hike is likely, but the extent of their hawkish shift remains unclear.
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JPY Shorting: A Risky Bet on Complacency
Read Time: 3 minutesShorting the Japanese Yen (JPY) has become a darling trade among risk-seeking investors, capitalizing on the current market sentiment and the wide interest rate differential between Japan and other major economies. This strategy, however, comes with hidden dangers that shouldn’t be ignored. Here’s a breakdown of the situation and the potential risks…
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Japan calls on Saudi Arabia, others to boost oil output to stabilise prices
Read Time: 2 minutes Japan is urging Saudi Arabia and other oil producing nations to increase supplies to stabilize the global oil market, the chief cabinet secretary said on Thursday, as rising fuel prices amid the Israel-Hamas conflict threaten to impact the global economy. Japan, the world’s fourth-largest crude buyer, imported 2.70 million barrels per day…
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Japan, the BOJ, the spread trade, and why and whether it may collapse.
Read Time: 3 minutesFirst off, why do we care so much about Japan and the BOJ? It’s because they’re by far the largest holder of US debt and equities, holding over 1.1 Trillion US dollars worth of debt. Japan’s incredible foreign holdings of US debt is widely regarded as the spread trade. The spread trade…
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More on Bank of Japan Governor Ueda weekend comments sending USD/JPY 100 points lower. |insights|
Read Time: 2 minutesUSD/JPY is indicating circa 146.85 after closing in Americas trade on Firayt about a hundred points higher than that. Every Monday I emphasise that liquidity is thin until more Asian centres come online. This makes this time of the FX week particularly susceptible to huge changes on little volume. Remember, FX is…
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Where is Japan inflation headed?
Read Time: < 1 minuteJapan’s headline inflation reaccelerated, and the core inflation indicates signs of stickiness around 4.2%. Still, the Bank Of Japan (BoJ) remains adamant about tweaking or abandoning the Yield Curve Control (YCC), leading to a massive rally in the USDJPY pair. The move out of the ultra-loose policy will likely coincide with…
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BoJ Interventions
Read Time: < 1 minuteOnce the music stops to play – Japan and its JPY have a long history in FX interventions. But carry traders currently should not only worry about renewed FX interventions to support the value of the JPY, also the risk of an increase in general FX volatility and a shrinking yield…
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Again a hard inflation numbers for Jpy!
Read Time: < 1 minuteA hawkish super-core inflation release this morning from Japan! Either you do Japan or Japan will do you. Here is what to take notice of. 1) The trimmed mean of inflation re-increased to 2.9% from 2.7% in SHARP contrast to analyst expectations and BoJ forecasts 2) The share of increasing items…
