The probability that the Fed hikes in September is still just 13%.
But, as this chart shows, the probability of a November hike is now 46%. It is very much “in the game.”
We now await Jay in J-Hole on Friday.
Amazingly, the market still expects 4 net *cuts* by Jan of ’25. It still seems convinced that the Fed will have inflation under control by then. Fed has a lot of work to do, not only with rates but also figuring out how to navigate exploding budget deficits, to get there.